I think pretty much everyone knows about the Lassonde Curve and...

I think pretty much everyone knows about the Lassonde Curve and in my experience it almost always plays out that way. However you can't just blindly apply it as there are outside and macro factors that either exaggerate or temper the curve.

For instance now is a crap time for commodity plays with every bit of good news released being seen as another opportunity to sell out. Just look at Independent Graphite's chart for the last year or so: it has been trending down not up even though they've done well with their exploratory efforts (which is one of the times in working towards production that the Lassonde Curve predicts a rising share price).

The other factor I think you need to build into your thinking with regards IG is that graphite, and particularly the type of graphite that IG has, is a critical component of batteries for EVs, and by location is attractive to US car manufacturers wanting to benefit from the IRA Act. Lithium and EVs are not just a flash in the pan as several trillion dollars has been committed to the sector and now even oil and gas gorillas are starting to show interest (as was pointed out on the Money of Mine podcast recently the oil industry is at least ten times the size of the iron ore industry which in itself is multiples the size of the critical metals industry so in terms of scale oil companies monster anything in the critical metals sector). On top of that IG clearly has an inbuilt advantage in going down stream with graphite production - some of the specialists that advise other graphite companies on how to go downstream are the insiders at IG.

I cannot remember if there has been any chat of government support for IG but they surely would be a cinch to pull off either grant funds or favourable debt raisings from either the WA or Australian governments. Then of course there could be cornerstone investors and offtakers that will likely be willing to give the company some supportive backing. Of course there will be some dilution of share value as they organise their funding but I think that dilution will be mostly cushioned.

FWIW I thought the MD gave an absolutely cracking interview: full of confidence, assuredness, and eloquence. Even had the interviewer spark up a bit (poor bugger seems to spend his days conducting pre-scripted interview after pre-scripted interview).

For anyone that doesn't know what the Lassonde Curve looks like here is one representation of it.