Nice work mickeebee. But also need to factor in a) Fund Investments: 30 June was the low point in the market (so far) and $92m unrealised loss should reverse over time b) Fund Investments: dividend income of $19m c)Magellan Capital Partners: share of associate profit: $8m
Under your scenario but factoring in the above (except the $92m unrealised loss as this is too vague) profit before tax increases by another $25m. which gives $204m net profit. Shares on issue: 184m Share price $13.70- $0.69 dividend = $13 (round off). $13 x 184m = $2392 market cap adjusted for dividend. PE of just under 12, on your scenario.
And remember all the discussion is on MFG continuing to loose AUM. What if MFG actually gains some AUM in the future??? This is not factored at all into any probability matrix of future profit.
Hence my comfort at holding at current share prices, and as part of a diversified portfolio. In fact top up, but just a little bit at $13.70 Position is just under 2% of the portfolio.
MFG Price at posting:
$14.08 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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