the sep qtr fum report (due Oct) will reveal the FUM direction. Sep qtr are usually laden with cum-div low selling-yield chasing enviro, this qtr has proven that mkts are still weak and on tenterhooks as mini rallies are being sold into - esp asia. will be interesting to see if they bleed more FUM (they lost 2.5bn!! or 4% of their FUM in the very first month of July!!! - typically a strong month!!!)
Dec qtr (when mkt is generally ex-div apart from banks) may be carnage....downside risks are big IMHO. so no, I dont foresee any H1 upside to avg FUM...if anything, clear downside....FUM is difficult to grow organically, but yes, may be supported by mkt movt and FX gains this qtr to shroud the real client bleed....
and in relation to historic p/e, that because of the "growth", as shown by the FUM "growth" leading up to FY22's cliff plunge!:
FUM HAS fallen off a cliff now!
Also p/e 20 due to growth ascribed to Barrenjoey Capital Partners - with the Barclays transaction proving its value (36.4%) at about ~$300m.
If this was benchmarked to its peers, a p/e of 8 + ~$300m uplift for Barra = $2bn Mkt cap, a -25% fall from here (TP: ~$11)
MFG Price at posting:
$14.21 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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