I see very little utility in looking at the rear view mirror of where a company has been in order to determine where it is going.
I really want to be able to buy MFG at $10 or less, in the absence of some catastrophe taking all of the management team down, I will back up the truck at that price..
Let go of a few MFG last week in the $15s that were acquired for a short term bounce, the last time there was talk of the company going to fold. It was was a nice little trade. Today, I bought half of them back. I reserve the rest of the sale proceeds if the price falls back into the $12 area (or less).
I have no particular interest in dividends, my value thesis rests on the long term underlying value of future free capital flows a little further out than what is visible to all. That's where risk and reward or punishment lies.
I saw enough in todays results to give cause for concern as well as enough to see a (SP depressed) underlying free cash flow business with very few friends. This is precisely the space I like being in. People either back the brains and the systems that have been built, or they shoot them and tear them down as failures.
Give me a motivated management team, a pristine balance sheet with assets marked down below cost by non cash losses and positive cash flow and I will back it EVERY SINGLE TIME. These are the basic ingredients of business success. Sure, the recent PAST short term numbers matter, that's why the price is being smashed.
The genuine test of any investment thesis is to know the people, know the industry, know the business and know the risks and join the dots over the NEXT 3-5 years. There can be no certainty, only probability based on past performance and past decisions. On that basis, I have this business as a BUY any time it is under $14 knowing it could fall much further in the short term but confident it will recover to a much higher value in the medium term. Since it closed over $14 at the time of this post, my sentiment remains as hold.
I get some comfort that should the SP fall into the $11- $12 area, the company will buy back its own stock. This is a common feature of many of my holdings when they fall under pricing stress. It helps me to increase my stake in the business, without having to deplete my own cash reserves. It is a good feeling.
Down rampers, go for your life with your keyboard warrior knives, my interest in investing is purely to try to make money when opportunity knocks. It does not always work, but hey, it hits pay dirt much more often than the wall. That'll do me.
GLTASH
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