Ann: Final Sofdra Labelling Discussions with FDA, page-154

From my observations, analysts NEVER fully factor in approval. Even if you look at the before and after approval date, there will be massive risk factors applied to non approval for the after approval date pulling the price back....

What this means typically, is after approval all the analysts rush to the door to revise their estimates up.

You watch - it will happen 21st and afterwards, guaranteed IMO.

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I get it, but a high margin for BOT is 40% .....

If the analysts are correct ( no clue here if they are ), it just means all my assumptions are about 50% lower than what they should be.

Ie

If BOT matches Kaken and sells 350,000 units.... and you are suggesting 540 net per 750 sales ....

285 million AUD. Minus 30% tax

200 million AUD

$1.86 per share on PE 15
$3.72 per share for 2 script refills ( USA average )
$11.16 per share for USA adjusted population ( 3 x Japan )

That is just the same market penetration as Kaken has in the USA.

One factor I cannot factor in, I believe BOT is doing direct sales to the customer without insurance, and these numbers re significantly lower. No idea what % of people would do that instead.