Ann: Final Sofdra Labelling Discussions with FDA, page-252

Neuren is an interesting startup to compare bot with only to the fact they are a startup.

The major difference is currently Nueren is treating a very, very small group of patients, and they recieve royalties on the sales. Once they are treating 100% of all patients - there is no more.

I think now they are recieving or set to recieve probably 70 million in royalties on near half a billion in sales... but I think 100 - 150 million is royalties on 100% of the market. That's all she wrote.


BOT on the other hand, we have all been talking about the price going to $3 - $5 on a measly 1 - 2 % market share.

If it's as successfull as the dermatologists who said they would use it 50% of the time first line, and 50% second line..... lets assume it gets 50% market penetration based only on the 3.7 million that found treatment in the last 12 month period.

1.85 million people is a possible target ( although 50% firstline, and 50% second line, means more than 50% would recieve it ) - ignore that and we use 50%.

50% of the 37% of sufferers ( total 10 million )
So actually we are only talking 18.5% market pentration.
1,850,000 * 200 ( Profit per unit in USD ) = 370 million USD profit ( 1 unit per person )
Now - the people are going to get somewhere between 1 and 12 units as an average. The derma average is 2 units in the USA but BOT has a genious plan to improve that. They mentioned 6, but lets use 4 units as an inbetween.
370 million USD profit * 4 units = 1.48 Billion US profit
Convert to AUD... 2.23 Billion Profit on 18.5% market penetration.

Using PE 15 would give a share price AUD of $22.30 a share.
But there is so much more below I think a bigger PE is warranted. Like CSL lets use 36

PE 36 gives $53.52 a share

BUT:

They could quite easily love the stuff, and instead of 4 refills they get 8....or....12 and actually follow the doctors prescribed course ..... Doubling or Tripplig the profit in each case to 4.46 Billion or 6.69 Billion profit

but we are still only at 18.5% market penetration. What if we actualyl got to 50% on the original assumptions?

50% market penetration gives 6 Billion profit on 4 scripts, with 8 or 12 yeilding 12 or 18 Billion profit ( more than CSL last time I checked ).


Now some more PE calcs - this time in 8 scripts.
PE 15 + 8 scripts $120 a share
PE 36 + 8 scrips. $288 a share ( close to CSL )


On 50% market penetration.


.......


40 cent share price could be 20,000 patients, ( 0.2 % market penetration )
Pretty cheap once it's approved when all that stands in the way is market penetration !

I don't think I can take it serious when 0.2% of market penetration is factored in..... hahhaha


Lets get approved first, and then sit back and watch product sales explode.