As much as I’d love a huge rally next week upon approval, given...

As much as I’d love a huge rally next week upon approval, given the relative certainty of approval, with the only outstanding being the labelling resolution, which has been done in consultation with the FDA, I agree that approval is pretty much priced in. The probability of approval is very high, which means it shouldn’t be a surprise. Only suprise will result in a big SP move. A rejection would be a huge surprise and result in a crash. Approval is expected.

my take is that post approval it grinds higher as the commercial success manifests.

As another poster pointed out, it has rallied 50% since the labelling fiasco, which is the rally you’d expect for such a high probability of final approval. The announcement itself may turn out to be benign and underwhelming.

the price sensitivity of the announcement today reflects that the team are providing a reinforcement of the reality here. In many way it’s providing transparency on the very high probability of success, which the majority should already understand. So, in my opinion the price sensitive nature of the announcement is due to its ability to slow sellers down, by informing them that while a rejection would be catastrophic, it’s highly unlikely, so chill. No need to take risk off ahead of next week. It’s BAU.

my take.