Thanks goodness for Delays , the 15,000 Oz that would have...

Thanks goodness for Delays , the 15,000 Oz that would have otherwise been rushed out at $1180 , should have hits the market at $1280+ . That’s a nice $1.5 million profit made from thin air.
We should know AISC/production for Q4 soon , but I am sure it will be within expectations, and that expectation is good.
I am also hoping for a dividend announcement tomorrow ---- 2c would I hope send BDR flying to 45c. It may not come tomorrow , but it is coming IMO and I think it will be Jan , Feb at the latest and here’s why:
1) BDR loan / Cash difference is negligible and the 12 quarterly loan installments will be able to be paid from the petty cash draw.
2) BDR IO asset accumulating
3) BDR $20million outstanding MACA payment due 2015
4)Additional Duckhead 2015 Operation could be additional $20m Net cash flow positive itself.
At 1280 the average mine cost of $33,000,000pq BDR needs only 26,000oz in quarterly sales, or more accurately 30,000 to coverall all corp/explore ) to break even . Averaging out the 180,000p.a initial estimate that is:
a) 15,000 X gold price cash flow positive without DH ( 19.2m)
b) 23,000 X gold price cash flow positive with DH (29.4m)
There is plenty of free cash flow to pay the $7m quarterly Loan payment fron both scenarios , which means the. Cash/bullion as at 31/12 is not needed to repay any of the loan and don’t forget as of latest announcement scenario B is expected as a minimum ( i knocked it down to 32K)
5) Q1 2015 - If we average out the last two Q1 periods (30.4 & 32.5) and ignore the 30% MACA improvements but add in the Q4 overhang , then BDR should Sell atleast 45,000oz. The mine should cost $33,000,000 to run , same as Q1 last year , which does not include halving of petrol bill and saving in cyanide. Based on these assumption BDR could hit AISC of $730 and run cash flow positive for the quarter of 24million ( less $5m corp . explore) and you’re at $19million of additional Cash to the $73million as at 31/12.
That’s $A92million with their first payment of roughly $A7m , not due until mid April. This facility is good , the securitisation is normal , the price is exceptional . As a shareholder hoping for either a juicy dividend or share buyback , I say once more good job Peter.
6) last but not least . If BDR have almost $100million dollars sitting in the bank , a world leading AISC and a significantly improving discovery , it will not make end of Q2 2015 without being scooped up , that is unless the share price rallies to over 60c. IMO without a significant Share price up step , Peter will need to send money out to guarantee he remains at the helm, because it will keep coming in faster and faster , which is of course a nice problem to have.. Having one third of your market cap sitting as cash in bank , low debt and significant cash flow positive operations is CEO Hari Kari from a takeover perspective , especially now sentiment has returned to Junior Gold Miner market and substantial holder obstacles are being removed.

Good Luck to all Holders , with the huge drop in BDR shorters overnight we may be ready for the next step up.
DB