Taking a look at Grants from a contained Li2O perspective:
From past and recently published material:
- June 2020 AR: 2.89Mt @ 1.48% for 42.7kt of contained Li2O (Resource). Open pit reserve 1.8Mt @ 1.5% for 26.5kt contained Li2O (Reserve)
- June 2021 AR: 2.89Mt @ 1.48% for 42.7kt of contained Li2O (Resource). Open pit reserve 1.8Mt @ 1.5% for 26.5kt contained Li2O (Reserve)
- June 2022 AR: 2.89Mt @ 1.49% for 42.9kt of contained Li2O (Resource). Open pit reserve 2.1Mt @ 1.4% for 31.0Kt contained Li2O (Reserve)
- June 2023 AR: 2.78Mt @ 1.47% for 40.8kt of contained Li2O (Resource). Open pit reserve 2.0Mt @ 1.4% for 28.8Kt contained Li2O (Reserve)
- MRE update: 2.32Mt @ 1.45% for 33.6kt of contained Li2O (Resource).
As at June 2023 the mining plan had 12.0kt not being recovered and 28.8kt in the mining plan to be recovered.
After extracting ore from Grants across July to December, the Li
2O remaining reduced to 33.6kt. If 12.0kt of this remans outside of the mining plan, there is 21.6kt of Li
2O still to recover from Grants using open pit mining. Changes to the plan might reduce this non-recovered 12.0kt but that's upside if it happens.
Assuming this is on-average converted into a SC5.0 product with a 63% recovery rate there is 272kt of SC5.0 still to be recovered from Grants.
[21.6 * (100%/5.0%) * 63%]. There might be extra from the sale of fines or future flotation processing of fines but that's future upside if it happens. This deeper Grants ore may be close to the ore Core tested in determining an expected project average 71.7% recovery, but that's upside if it happens.
SMM is quoting the current price of Australian 6% spod as US$1,140/t. A grade conversion to 5% and exchange rate adjustment alters that to A$1,462/t. That price could be nearer A$1,300/t after lower prices for lower grade concentrate and contract pricing discounts. Using A$1,300/t, Grants would appear to have ore enabling A$354m of revenue from restarting mining at today's prices. Many long-term estimates are higher than US$1,140/t but that's upside if it happens. If there's less than 11% grade and contract discounts that would be upside if it happens.
If there is around 2.0M bcm of waste rock and ore to remove to access this ore and the price is A$20 per bcm or less then remaining mining costs are A$40m or less. A price under A$20/t is upside if it happens. With Core redoing its processing contracts these should come back to a sensible price, but non-mining C1 costs in the DFS were US$125/t (at 0.70 exchange rates it was A$179/t). If non-mining costs were double this at A$358/t there's A$97m non-mining costs to complete the mine out of Grants. If Core comes in less than double DFS then that's upside if it happens.
So with a number of upside if it happens items excluded, A$354m - $40m - $97m = A$217m (before royalties). Core's recent losses should mean the profitability based royalty structure has limited royalties payable unless prices improve further.
With potentially >$200m of pre-royalty profit from a Grants mining restart, some people think Core won't restart mining Grants lol
(20min delay)