wrt "falling knife": I've always felt that the difference between catching a falling knife and "doing what others want to do, before they want to do it" is two things:
- Timing: Are you happy with your timing or accept that you will never get timing perfect
- Conviction in the business case.
I've long ago accepted I'll always buy too early and that with enough understanding of the business case, risk and modelling; I'll be able to sell at a reasonable point. Yeah, you caught a falling knife, but that's show biz baby.
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