wassa, I ask that you keep posting, you are one of the good ones. I appreciated your pulling me up last week when I misread the financial statements and I appreciate your rant-free commentary even if I might reach a different conclusion to you. I think this is hc at its best when people talk through different points of view.
re the arbitrage between market value and replacement value: well, on one side, particularly in the shallow end of the pool the market is not always efficient so sometimes there really are screaming buys. A good one I remember is back in 2015 (?) I could buy RMS at six cents a pop and Ramelius had a very low market cap. Any sort of analysis indicated that RMS was at give-away prices but I bottled it - what did the market know that I did not ? - and only bought a few. I personally think that Gascoyne at 33 cents is similar to 2015 Ramelius. The only difference is that Gascoyne is so wounded that I expect it will be picked up by a more established player for not much more than what Westgold was offering. But I could well look back at this time and realise that once again I bottled it.
On the other hand maybe costs and circumstances have so changed that using replacement value as a marker is no longer relevant. It may be simply nonviable to build new plants and there will be a mad max period in the mining sector where those that make do with what they already have are the ones that will thrive. I think Gascoyne is extremely sensitive to the gold price cost balance and people might be worried that it would not take much for it to become deeply unprofitable.
Gwaihir, about the trucking costs in the longer term. The step-change boost will likely be when autonomous trucks begin hauling ore on public roads in WA. One of the bigger costs with haulage is labour, not only the wages bill but also that it is only available for a portion of the time. Autonomous trucks will be able to run close to 24 hours a day, seven days a week, using settings that minimise wear and tear and with AI systems that make the process robust and reliable. Not this year, probably not next year, but likely in the next few years.
(20min delay)
