Ann: First AngelMed Guardian implants in Asia-Pacific, page-193

i'll stick with that, 30-50c this year, is where i thought that Singapore surgery would allow this to return to pre covid 19 prices. Noting that the 25c January level Pre CV 19 crash, is more like 17c with the dilution of the CR. That said, 30m mc, seemed to me the base of where it should be given that it needs to get FDA approvals still on the battery upgrade to go mainstream. And 50m fair if the market would wake up to the rising income potential.

The headwinds are how many patients get 1% of 500k prospective = 5000 patients say, with CV 19 restricting hospitals. They have performed 4 operations in Singapore, and need to wait until 2021 to get the FDA approval before this can be more broadly applied to market asia. As with any new device, it will take some time to build up a momentum of reputation and benefit, to become a standard of care. That said, like cochlear could be great long term. The worry is that HYD only have a 7 year + 2 year extension option on the Angelmed Asian distribution agreement. They could do all the heavy lifting, and miss out on the real long term gravy.

If they do achieve the 1% on 500k = 35m, with a 50% gross margin, is that 17m net to HYD ? And in what year is that expected ? I'm just trying to figure out, with product awareness and adoption, when they would expect the 5000 sales figure to be achieved steady state, to determine, how many of the 9 years, could be cash flow.

Perhaps it is more like 1000 units the first year, 2000 the next, 3000 the year after etc. That is the execution risk of a new product entering the market. Long term, its great if it gets adoption, the worry, HYD arent here for the long term pay out.