Roch. Do you know anything about Brier Scores? (if you don't,...

Roch. Do you know anything about Brier Scores? (if you don't, then I suggest you do some reading).

Also - note that geologic probability simply tells us that the reservoir rock exists, that there are trap formations in place (from seismic data), that source rock appears to be consistent with hydrocarbon formation (material, pressure and temperature are/were present) and that there are adequate migration routes (again, from seismic). It does not guarantee that resource estimates are correct, that the hydrocarbons can be brought to the surface, or that the well is commercial. Pressure problems, hole problems, water invasion, porosity, and other factors may limit the commerciality of a well, and until you have resource confirmation and pressure confirmation you cannot even contemplate commercial operations. So to scream out time and time again that 90% geological certainty translates directly to 90% commercial certainty is not only bizarre, it is misleading, misguiding and downright incorrect.

Don't take my word on it: ask some of the Geos on this thread who live and breathe this stuff.

Regards
Kit