"TER's forecasting EBITDA is 423 million, much larger than BCB's."
Oh, what did you think BCB's projected EBITDA was?. Pls share!. For 2022?. For beyond 2022, Nup.
Just seems a really odd comparison with a thermal producer in Sth Africa carrying risks I wouldn't invest in personally. I hold some CRN and NHC but just for yield, no growth. When pricing turns I'll switch to 100% BCB to capture growth.
Guidance here has been 6.2mmt ROM CY 2024 but judging from recent comments what could be for sure is 5mmt by 2025 (run rate). This is before any work to access other sites eg 87MMT Hillalong just to the north of Burton and Coroorah, both of which have been mentioned recently (we know they are being looked at). What we know about BCB is they are good at methodically moving multiple sites into production. Efficiency gains post startup we haven't seen yet but lets give them some time.
Here's a table of some noodled numbers which are my noodling only, only for a scenario's sake. Imagine we cap out at 5mmt and use CBA's recent projections for Met Coal pricing (and thermal assuming a 70/30 split). Admittedly this looks a bit too good to be true, but for me I'm happy to hold and find out if it is. BTW I've overdone the Capex IMO.
Some other noodled numbers if there is growth beyond the current complex eg Hillalong, Cooroorah etc. And also BTW Previous guidance was 6.3mmt anyway by 24 with 4 sites so a guy can dream right. Also consider the statement I also took $10 off FOB assuming that by then the co could have figured that out. Again I reckon I've overdone the capex as Sumitomo might fund getting Hillalong going. Even though I feel like I've underdone the growth potential, this is pretty nice to look at but happy to admit it could be dreaming. I reckon the midpoint between the tables is likely best to think about when you're considering upside potential.
Here's the broader portfolio to consider. A few months ago all that was happening was some early site work at Bluff. Now Broadmeadow is coming on and Burton Lenton are next. Hillalong and Cooroorah are positioned as most likely to get attention following. Note the physical proximity benefits of the portfolio which would come into play (along with scale) in terms of FOB costs over time. Genius.
