CO1 0.00% 12.0¢ cobalt one limited

Look, I think it's a good investment. Not amazing. Not trying to...

  1. 2,768 Posts.
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    Look, I think it's a good investment. Not amazing. Not trying to scare anyone off. I think your sentiment is sound if it meets your return/risk profile. For the Canadian operations, this is pretty low risk indeed.

    If AUS holders weren't diluted down to 60% for no particular reason, it would have been far better. I don't see how you arrive at the idea there is no dilution for us, it's real. So if FCC m/c goes up 10x M/C you essentially get 6x as an Aussie, not bad return, but hardly ideal. Why? Simply, because you own less shares by percentage.

    So 10x would require the new entity to hit the $1.2B CAD/AUD mark, which is achievable, that's 6x for us. Can it go to $2.4B? Possible, but unlikely, I'd like to be proven wrong, in which case we'd get 9.6x not 16x . Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of this... But we have to be realistic about what market cap

    We would hold the majority stake, not by much, and also bring the majority of market cap (74.43 million currently) to the new entity of merged 3 companies. (First Cobalt only brings about $43.516M). We get 60% of value in the new merged entity... So lets say the new entity is $130M, yes we get $78M of that market cap at around 60%, but are not full 100% holders of the new market cap if you get my drift, it should really have been 1:1 considering we are bringing an additional $31M in, you can argue we bring no assets apart from 50% of a refinery and the Cobalt tenements which are smaller than FCC, and just some management etc. Our tenements are probably what FCC regard as only being worth 60%. However, the $31M we bring in, could have been worth a lot of tenements surely... why is it disregarded.

    FCC also have to do a load of drilling to prove out the resources, which I'm sure will be excellent, their DRC resources may be wildly better than anything in Canada. DRC cobalt puts everyone else to shame, and this is acknowleged as they produce over 50% of the world's cobalt there.

    I guess one of the few big positives is the quality of resource in Canada to get going which was really proven over 30-40 years of old-school mining techniques, and the low risk factor, as long as Cobalt stays in demand, which should be the case for a long time, and at least 5 years of shortage really.

    It's very Cobalt/Ag centric otherwise, not too much spread risk, but silver is a decent commodity in itself. I have looked at the ore body maps, and the existing mines didn't hit large sections. the bulk mining operation is the way to go, they can just rip all the high grade out, it is worth it for high-grade bulk operations.

    What is important is the Canadian listing, where real investor money with informed investors, can help drive the market cap of this new thing. That is simply for the large part, non-existent on the ASX. So a $1B market cap is more of a reality. Remember there is still capital raising / potential JVs / takeovers / splits / consolidations etc. etc. to face to actually fund mining.

    Otherwise the Equator name change to CO1, then merger, then silence, has confused the c!@p out of the ASX market, which is why so few people are in here saying anything, paying any attention, or buying (it has been literally dead-in-the-water), they've finally addressed this with the latest presentation etc. Ideally, CO1 would have been able to raise more interest from the ASX market, but it seems too late for that until a merger happens.

    The ideal time to be in, like a lot of the commodities this year was NOV/DEC 2016, and you'd be sitting really pretty right now regardless, and wouldn't care about 40%.

    Anyway, that's my take on the whole thing. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe right. I know I do have much better investments in the works...
    Last edited by shades2: 02/08/17
 
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