Here’s a breakdown of potential price targets for Nyrada (ASX:...

Here’s a breakdown of potential price targets for Nyrada (ASX: NYR) based on different Phase 1 (P1) outcomes:

Scenario 1: Mild Success (Safety Confirmed, No Major Surprises)

✅ P1 confirms safety & tolerability
❌ No strong blood-brain barrier (BBB) penetration data
❌ No early signs of efficacy

Expected share price gain:+20% to +50%
Price Target:$0.13 - $0.17

Probability:40-50% (Most likely outcome based on biotech P1 trends).

Scenario 2: Strong Success (Good Safety + BBB Penetration)

✅ Safe & well tolerated
✅ Shows strong BBB penetration
✅ Potential for Phase 2 funding or partnerships

Expected share price gain:+100% to +300%
Price Target:$0.22 - $0.44

Probability:20-30%

Scenario 3: Breakthrough (Exceptional Data + Pharma Interest)

✅ Safe, well tolerated
✅ BBB penetration proves highly effective
✅ Early efficacy signals (e.g., biomarker response, preclinical confirmation in humans)
✅ Big pharma or institutional investor interest

Expected share price gain:+500% or more
Price Target:$0.66+

Probability:5-10% (Rare but possible if results are outstanding).