I suspect the muted reaction to todays announcement is due to the following. Given the 3c dividend, I was hoping for a H1 EBITDA of $10m rather than the $9.3m achieved. The key difference from my forecast was that the dividend payout was closer to 75% rather than the 70% I'd assumed. As a result, Q2 EBITDA was 'only' up 53% on Q1, rather than 70%+. That said, this is still a great result and all signs are that operating conditions will remain strong in H2. The higher debt was to be expected from W/C associated with the strong first half, but they also paid the remaining earnouts which is a positive going forward. Based on the HY results, below is my best estimate for the full year. If achieved, it means the P/E is less than 8x and the dividend yield is 11.5% (including franking benefits - note: this also assumes a 70% payout but could be higher ).
ASH Price at posting:
69.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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