IBX 7.69% 3.6¢ imagion biosystems limited

Ann: First-in-human Study Progress Update, page-157

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    Everythingon the ASX is a bet on probability of commercial success, less time discount, and forward looking capital requirements .

    And that needs then to calculate what the winning prize is, firstly in an initial period, which secondly that lends itself to a long term growth trend de-risked.And factor in that a takeover event is probable.

    If there are 5 horses in a race, and the winning prize is $1000, and each horse has equal chance, then betting $200 on each horse, would guarantee you an even return that 4 horses x 200 will lose you 800, but the winner will redeem your 1000.

    When someone sells you that ticket on any of those horses for less than 200, you are odds better to make money. And over 200, odds better to lose money.

    With any stock, you then need to ask, what is the winning prize ? and what are your odds of a successful event to unlock that prize ?

    If IBX is priced by the market at 50m mc, (the same market also paid 200m ) and the winning prize is say for example only, $1b, then the market is giving you 20-1odds. The seller is giving away their chance of that win.You know the horse. Do you think you are better than 20-1 odds favourite ? do you really think there is only a 5% chance of a win at that prize ? or a higher percent, and a lower winning prize. ? What if the winning prize is $10b over the next 10 years ?What do you think the market will reward an upfront win with ?

    So what is the winning prize ? How many medical procedures will want to first check if itis cancer positive before biopsy or surgery ? What about being able to find cancer that you can not pick up when it is a fraction of the scale that other imagining may miss and inconclusive without introducing a radioactive element?

    At several hundred dollars a test, net to us, how many tests world wide ? How many precautionary tests, and how many tests to avoid unnecessary surgery and how many tests to check on patients in recovery ?( you want to pick up any cancer at the smallest levels) What when this becomes a doctors office hand held screener ?

    The prize is astronomical.If you multiple number of tests x a few $ hundred per test. It is a new standard of care, which saves lives from early detection, and prevents unnecessary surgical procedures. What is the probability that this little ASX gem, will get taken over by a Siemens or GE major. ? They will be looking at their growth, and what this will do for them.

    Last edited by stevenjd: 24/03/22
 
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