There are a quite a few moving parts in the SYA cash flow which...

There are a quite a few moving parts in the SYA cash flow which increases the uncertainty when backing out the net sale price for the 19200dmt 5.35% product.

This is another view in case it helps:

The Q4/2023 cash flow excluding net new equity, restricted deposits, JV contributions and FX effects was -$94.149m. If we take 2/3 of this to the end of August (-$62.766m); add net new tranche 2 capital ($30.731m-$1.102m) then add the Q3 closing balance ($211.214m) we get a cash balance before the customer receipt of $178.076m. As the end of August cash was said to be $257m, the 90% customer receipt could be the difference of $78.924m.

If this holds then the 100% sale price would be $87.693m or US$58.053m (AUDUSD 0.662 Aug 1) or US$3,024 per dmt at 5.35% or US$3,391 per dmt for 6% spodumeme.

The 6% spodumene price at the start of August CIF China was about US$3,450.

Production for the two months was at the ramp up rate of 120kt per annum.

I suspect that asking shareholders to wait for an average unit price was done to dilute the negative effect of the PLL offtake price.

In my view SYA could actually be doing OK.