I continue to stick to the PLS narrative as an indicator to where we could head.
I would like to think we are headed on a similar trajectory, while also taking into account the PLL offtake, our JV's and partnesrhips.
Back in their early days of production, they were smashed down, and to look at their share price today, you would think it was inconceivable they were worth just 30c
Early 2020 15c............Late 2020 30c..................Late 2021 $3.30.....Late 2022 $5.43
Our rise will of course not be so stratospheric in terms of percentage, but you get the idea...
A lot has transpired from those days, but we are seeing very similar headwinds.
Depressed lithium price, ramp up and plant tuning, early production with zero to low margins and the typical treatment by the harsher forces of the ASX...shorting, algorithmic trading, suppresion and accumulation....particularly when transitioning from the hype of an early explorer to a producer, now being valued by market disclosed metrics, not hype and mania...
Took them a while to turn a profit...sc6 was around US$480 in late 2020, but we may be cash positive by the end of the year,
with SC6 prices of US$3000+
So, we probably need to see some similar tailwinds to get to where would all like to be.
What we need to see-
Lithium prices to recover and start appreciating.
I wrote a piece on this yesterday.
I have been following this topic and the SMM spot price is not an accurate indicator to follow. I really do think there is a big disconnect between what they are reporting and what is happening. Their refined hydroxide or carbonate prices don't even add when compared to the SC6 price, when purchasing and adjusting for conversion. If you were to believe their pricing, there is not a converter in China making money..it just doesn't add up.
Additionally, the destocking thematic continues, for converters, CAM material and cell stock levels,and the second half of the year is traditionally stronger for lithium pricing. The supply chain is lagging at the moment, so hopefully when all these factors combine, hopefully as early as late this month, we could see a turnaround on the SMM.
EV penetration continues steadily, whether the naysayers want to believe it or not. Its in the data and anecdotally, I am seeing these things everywhere...on the streets, in the city, at work, in our apartment complex, at the market, ...bloody everywhere....crunch time is coming...
The plant to continue its steady ramp.
Fine tuning to maximise production, while keeping the impurity levels low and the concentrate at a consistent 5.4%. If there is 1 team I have faith in at Sayona, it is the Quebec team. So steady improvements for the rest of the year, hitting nameplate by October/November, maybe December??? I original thought it could be this month, but they have had some issues, so the evolutionary improvement of the plant continues.
Shipments to continue steadily..to the spot market and PLL, with revenues reflected on our books. Ramp up is costly, so dont expect stellar margins right off. They will come, it will take some time and even further time to be reflected on our books.
There's a bunch of other big announcements to come as well...CEO...offtake....and other curveballs for Amoss, further BOD inclusions, further acquisitions and or big name JV's.
So, Possibly, Mid to high twenties by years end ...not financial advice... and I get SP's more wrong than right.
I am not holding my breath until we get there, but if we finally start have some things go our way, we may see our SP finally start drifting up in the right direction, rather than below our current bricks and mortar value.
For the moment though, get ready for 10c......
Good luck everyone....
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