I’m not saying LTR will be achieving $720/t, but when...

I’m not saying LTR will be achieving $720/t, but when established producers are mostly now all-in loss makers, LTR simply doesn’t stand a chance of any result other than huge cash burn.

The outcome here depends on whether SC6 flat lines along the bottom for 12 months or retraces back towards $1k/t later this year

If spot manages to stay below $800/t for 12 months, I’d say LTR is quite likely to end up in significant distress (but of course this can’t be calculated precisely until the company provides guidance or actuals).

The shiny no expense spared plant was developed when many companies thought that spod pricing was almost guaranteed to remain above $1.5k/t even in a worst case scenario - it’s not going to mean cheap unit costs.

Ive consistently said LTR is fine if spot prices rebound sharply but that is a large bet to make right now.