It claims that electrification and decolonisation won’t happen without these 4 metals - Lithium, graphite, nickel and copper. Essentially, they are the building blocks of the new ‘green economy’ that is now upon us.
I have no doubt that is true but that’s not the complete picture. I understand that the article needs to simply its message however, the reality is somewhat different. The interconnectedness of all minerals will play a part in this mineral-inventive future but some metals will become more critical than others. For instance, Tin is the ‘glue’ that makes all these new technology products function. So, you can have as much raw material as you like but if you can’t connect them into a useful item then you have a 'crippled' economy.
Everything is interconnected in some way, however, Tins' critical role in any ‘green enabled’ scenario will become geopolitically motivated and vital to our lives than ever before. Considering how rare Tin is, 30% rarer than copper (US alone has little to no reserves) you can understand why the MIT/RIO Tinto consider it to be the No.1 metal most impacted by New Technology. See attached diagram from Quarterly.
Furthermore, when you consider all these other factors:
input costs into products are negligible even at the current 10-year tin price record highs, i.e., a mobile phone consumes about 2 grams of tin (approximately 10-20¢ depending on the item). Therefore, if the current spot price doubles it will have little impact on the consumer price point for that product.
existing Tin jurisdictions are undergoing environmental and sovereign risk issues or are COVID affected.
existing sources are continuing to experience diminishing resource with low grades.
potential deposits are not ready to come on board to fulfil the demand, including Stellar. Due in part to minimal investment over the last decade or so into new discoveries and development of discoveries.
minimal new deposits are located in safe, secure and low sovereign risk jurisdictions.
ESG savvy investors need to invest their funds in ethical projects. Look no further than Tasmania (running on 100% renewable energy).
There is no substitute for Tin. It is only a matter of time before the market wakes up.
