It is interesting as been doing quite a bit of research that the Surat rail which is a 3 way tie up is now unlikely to get final investment decision until 2013 as per the QR annual report. ATEC and xstrata the other two I could not find dating reference on.
The thermal coal play by Glencore is interesting as they are effectively betting on bottom of the cycle play. Hope they are right as xstrata bottom line is 25% a thermal coal play!
So within 6-9 months from now we have:
Surat rail decision and construction commencing as the 2 short listed bidders will have final tender decision announced anyway now.
Xstrata giving go ahead on wandoan. Highly likely if price can rebound for NH winter to over 90usd a tonne and aud continues downward path over next 6 months with interest rate decreases and the expected raft of bad news to come out of this economy which has yet to be reported on but every man and his dog can see on the street!
Potential Bundi JV sign up upon the two above statements coming to fruition. All very interlinked in my opinion for investment decision by overseas entity.
A lot of potential upside over the next 6 months as in my opinion all of the above has been factored into the current share price as NOT happening.
The Glencore comments are there for all to see and this is key for metro coal!
Wandoan go ahead, means metro coal a multiple of current share price!
MTE Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
