IMO the writing is on the wall (in a good way). You have a company that is producing the commodity, accumulating stockpiles and actively scaling operations. Furthermore anyone with a sense of commerical prowess can tell this is all at a profitable business model, so things have flexibility to just get done.
There is lots of talk about transitory setbacks / pain particularly regarding shipping. Transparently, it is clearly a near term risk, however, I personally think the business is far too progressed for things to really go disaterously wrong at this point. You can walk around the mine, pick up a small lump out of our growing stockpile and say to yourself "huh lets go sell it." it's hard to pick a strong counter argument to the business based on this in my opinion. At the very worst there will be re-negotiations, scrapping existing contracts, sueing counterparties for non-performance, finding other contractors or whatever is necessary to get coal from pile to cash in bank. This all sounds scary when I write it out, but its really not complicated in the grand scheme of "things that go wrong in business."
That is said with a long term perspective, I'm unsure what the near term holds so its your personal preferance to wait and see if there could be a better short term price. Than again, I believe that the longer term prospectives and re-rates are the lucrative value drivers of my investment in the business, so I have very little interest in the short term price.
hopefully that perspective provides some insight.
- Mane
CKA Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
