Yeah agree with most of that. At these gold prices they can invest on all fronts, have AISC increase 30% and still make a lot of free cashflow. Other thing I haven't seen mentioned is that their tax holiday in Ivory Coast for Yaoure, expires at the end of this year ('five years from first production'). Income tax will be 25% from then on.
Most of the free cashflow is going to go to the US$800M capital investment in the next couple of years.
I really would have liked to see them acquire another asset to fill the production drop. Maybe nothing came up that excited them. A PRU/WAF tie up would have been a good match in terms of timing production profiles. I suspect Burkina Faso risk is too much for Perseus to bet on now though.
Seems like they're not in the driver's seat with Predictive anymore and it ends up in Lundin/Zijin/Montage hands. I liked that Perseus were aggressive in acquiring their stake, as they had been pretty conservative in the years before that and they timed it well. I tend to agree with Jeff's assessment though that Predictive is relatively fully priced here.
I think there are easier plays than PRU in the sector at the moment. I'm hard pressed to find a reason why they would outperform the peers over the next 18 months (until Nyanzaga comes online). You could probably argue they deserve a management premium for the way they have executed in the last 5 years, and that might be a reason to own the stock.
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