nice post and thanks for the effort reckon the conservative is a...

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20/01/23

15:35

Post #: 65798635
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Originally posted by bremor ↑

I have done some high-level analysis on the Emirates deal, conservative, optimistic and realistic. I am assuming that the SIMs will be available on all 180 planes. This analysis may be a bit naive so please no attacks and feel free to shoot holes in my analysis.

Conservative
- 25 million emirates passengers in 2022-2023. 50% are returning travellers (do not require a SIM), 10% are children, 11.25m potential customers.
- Uptake rate of 0.1%, (1 passenger per every 3.5 flights based on Emirates published Summer 2022 passenger data)
- Emirates take 75% of the sale, leaving Flexiroam with US$60 * 1.45 * 25% = AU$22, revenue of AU$247,500

Optimistic
- 50 million emirates passengers (pre-pandemic levels) in 2022-2023. 50% are returning travellers, 10% are children, 22.5m potential customers.
- Uptake rate of 1%, (2.85 passengers per every flight)
- Emirates take 15% of the sale, leaving Flexiroam with US$60 * 1.45 * 85% = AU$73, revenue of AU$16,425,000

Realistic
- 30 million emirates passengers in 2022-2023. 50% are returning travellers, 10% are children, 13.5m potential customers.
- Uptake rate of 0.35%, (1 passenger per every flight)
- Emirates take 40% of the sale, leaving Flexiroam with US$60 * 1.45 * 65% = AU$56, revenue of AU$2,646,000

Conclusion
Even the most optimistic case exceeds the estimated revenue of A$150,000 by a lot. My 'realistic' case may be a tad optimistic, so knock off 20% to be safe, and you are still left with A$2m in revenue.

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nice post and thanks for the effort

reckon the conservative is a good starting point, increase uptake to 0.2%

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0 Great analysis

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