Well every investor is a failed investor until he is not.
As for ROIC, the way I calculate it is different to others, its not very scientific: FCF / Invested Capital, where Invested Capital = Equity + Lease Obligations + Debt. By the way how do you calculate surplus cash? The way I do it is simply CA - CL, and the difference is surplus cash, the reasoning is that anything from CA that is left over after covering the CL should be surplus capital.
As for your point 3, how do you know there's 1 spiral in each micro? I'm pretty sure in that article I read dated from 2017 they mentioned there were 2 spirals per MABR unit (whatever MABR unit means?) And more important what do you think is likelihood for FLC to sustain the sales in SPS, sure one bulk order could potentially enable $98m in revenue from one line but it makes little difference to the company's valuation if it cannot be sustained year after year, in any DCF model the majority of a firm's value is in the terminal value. The RR we all love but I don't understand how water as a service work, judging by RR growth the industry demand seems low.
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