I was hoping to see a SPS + RR revenue of $21m for Q2, but not to be. I had re-examined my interpretation of the Q1 results and reconciled with the Q2 updates, did see some muddled part in my readings in Q1. Hopefully this time is a bit clearer.
1. Total backlog as at 30 June is $52.8m; $46.6m goes to SPS and RR, that means there is only $6.2m left in Ivory Coast assuming no other CES.
2. I now can confidently say that SPS revenues are $$6.56m for Q1 and $13,448m in Q2 this year. That takes up to about $20m for this half. Total Half year revenue is about $30.8m, so the remaining $10.8m is spread between RR and CES from IC. (RR was $9.7m for the full year of last year, so if I assume $4.8m goes to RR, IC contributes $6m).
3. In order to achieve the guidance of $60-70m contribution from SPS + RR, that would be $36-46M to hit in 2H. If we look at the backlog of $46.6M, it seems more than reasonable to achieve, and probably, any new bookings that can be fulfilled in shorter terms would add on as a bonus to this guidance.
Some observations:
1. I do agree we that observation that now new partners and new territories gained are not to be announced. Not sure if the $3m threshold still stays. It is quite evidence that the 2 new WWTP upgrades are in Hebei province. The previous similar project was in Maoji for an upgrade of 20,000 CMD for about $1m. These 2 at Shexian of 25,000 CMD each would be $1.25m each if it was priced the same at Maoji's price, but I would imagine there should be a price raise for projects with proven tech now and the price in Maoji would incorporate some risk discount as a pioneer project.
Similarly, Tom had mentioned the recently signed LOI for our first anaerobic digester order in North America worth over $1M is in Indiana. Again, new territory...
2. It was also mentioned that 1H EBITDA was $0.5M. That leaves $2M to hit in 2H, and with $46.8M backlog, it seems conservative to me.
3. $3.8M savings on fixed cost is actually a huge achievement because the savings flows straight down to the bottomline. It is equate to a CES revenue of $25M for 15% gross margin, or $25M Nirobox sale at 25% GM or $9.5M SUBRE sale at 40% GM. Not much comments on this savings, but I think it is BIG!
4. China had recently announced and released funds from the central government for infrastructure projects. I do think it will flow to our 2H contribution from inside China.
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I was hoping to see a SPS + RR revenue of $21m for Q2, but not...
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