Thanks
@sell I spent a lot of time trying to figure things out in 2018, but stopped watching the Top 20 closely since
@stotes stopped posting broker data. I've got my hands full with general research anyway, as there are lots of things going on in the background.
I'd say BNP are loading Fluence into their BNP Paribas Aqua Fund.
Investment strategy
Management objective: Classified as international equities, the Fund's objective is to obtain, over a minimum five-year period, the increase in value of its medium-term assets by investing in shares issued by companies active in the water sector and/or associated sectors, and selected for the quality of their financial structure and/or potential for profitable growth. The Fund meets extra-financial criteria for socially responsible management. The Fund invests in the entire water value chain, which consists primarily of three sectors: water infrastructure, treatment and services.The Fund is actively managed. The MSCI World index in euro, with net dividends reinvested, is used retrospectively as a benchmark for performance comparison. Management strategy is discretionary and not constrained by the index.Key characteristics of the Fund: The Fund follows a socially responsible investment strategy (SRI) by investing in direct lines and in units or shares of internal CISs of BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT (BNPP AM) management companies. This strategy is based on an active management style that takes a systematic and disciplined approach to stock-picking by combining financial and extra-financial research. The SRI strategies in direct or indirect lines are supplemented, through an assessment of economic criteria, by valuation and technical analysis carried out by the management team. Investment decisions are regularly reviewed by this team.For direct investments: The Fund invests in companies that derive a significant portion of their income, profits or capital from the entire water sector chain. It integrates environmental, social and governance criteria into the assessment of companies. The Fund therefore applies a sustainable thematic approach. Firstly, companies operating in sensitive sectors such as coal-based energy production or tobacco production are excluded, along with those that do not comply with BNPP AM sector-specific policies on controversial activities. Similarly, companies that repeatedly contravene any of the Ten Principles of the United Nations Global Compact on subjects such as human rights, labour rights, the environment and anti-corruption are excluded.The management team analyses the ESG criteria of companies using a documented and referenced approach. ESG analysis criteria are, for example:- With respect to company activity: environmental solutions to the problems of access to water (purification, treatment, diagnostics)- With regard to the environment: related to manufacturing processes (e.g. pipes, pumps, valves, taps), waste treatment, greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, environmental safety of installations- With regard to corporate and social aspects: respect for labour law within the company and in its supplier companies, protective measures taken for the health and safety of employees- With regard to governance: transparency of governance structures, the composition and effectiveness of management bodies,the nature and structure of capital, the rights of minority shareholders, compensation and incentives for managers, the reputation of the company, accounting practices adopted and the fight against corruption.This analysis is applied to at least 90% of portfolio issuers and results in a minimum 20% reduction in the Fund's investment universe. It is backed up by an active policy of engaging in responsible practices with other companies (individual and collective engagement, general meeting votes etc.).For investments via internal CISs: The management company selects the internal CISs applying SRI filters. The management team establishes a list of underlying CISs that meet SRI criteria. The SRI methodology applied by these CISs is as follows: A team of SRI specialists determines an underlying CIS universe corresponding to SRI strategies from ESG indicators selected by the management company. The manager of internal CISs then applies their basic financial analysis model and selects the securities.The Fund invests in large-, mid- and small-cap corporate securities issued in international markets. The Fund's target exposure to equities will be at least 90% of the net assets. Up to a maximum of 100% of the net assets may be exposed to small- and mid-cap equities. Up to 30% of the Fund's net assets may be exposed to the markets of emerging countries. Finally, investment in internal CISs is made within a maximum of 10% of the net assets of the Fund.The manager may use derivatives traded on futures markets regulated by a member of the European Union or over the counter to hedge the portfolio against the risks associated with equities and equivalent securities and/or with indices and/or foreign exchange and/or to seek further exposure to the equities market.The Fund exposes unitholders in the eurozone to a currency risk affecting up to 100% of the net assets.Unitholders may request redemption of their units from Monday to Friday at 3 p.m. (Paris time). Redemption requests are cleared by BNP Paribas Securities Services, executed on the basis of the next asset value on the same day and settled within the following five business days.Allocation of distributable income: Accumulation.Investors are advised to refer to the Fund prospectus for more information.Other information: The Fund may not be appropriate for investors who plan to withdraw their money within five years.
There are about 54 companies in the portfolio, with about 1.4% cash.
If the top 10 plus cash make up 30%, then the other 44 companies make up 70% of 3.42 billion GBP.
That is 2.394 billion GBP. Average that out between 44 companies and that is 54.4 million GBP per company on average.
If BNP try to get Fluence to 1% of the fund holding that is 34.2 million GBP.
That equates to around $62.5 million AUD.
If BNP have bought 25 million shares on market at an average of 25 cents, that is about a $6.25 million AUD spend.
The can probably afford to keep buying, as at the moment Fluence would be the most insignificant, inconsequential part of the fund. It would be about 0.1% of the fund at the moment. When they only keep 50-60 companies in there, they would want to bottom ones to grow up.
You notice that Fluence has really been touting their ESG credentials the last 3 years, this really falls into appealing to this sort of fund.
As Fluence have hit certain targets, it has probably triggered more buying from the fund: Ivory Coast water treatment plant, MABR China growth, Cambodia, Philippines, USA, then desal in Egypt, Brazil, Argentina, Taiwan, etc.
You talked about valuation, in the previous webinar Richard also said that if Fluence were listed in the USA, it would have at least a 3x higher valuation. I'm sure because this is literally what they invest in, BNP can also see that compared to the other companies in the Aqua portfolio, Fluence deserve a higher valuation, so they probably will see value at current market cap compared to revenue and future growth. As they have a long term view they can probably see that Fluence is trending well for long term growth.
Also linked to Impax in the UK.
Keep an eye on BNP for us
@sell and see if they keep buying. 32 million shares gets them to the 5% substantial holder threshold so then they have to report their movements anyway.
