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Originally posted by SEAH
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Hi Peterpanned, Fluence is not speculative and not prerevenue....PLS is speculative till then finish construction and start shipping, MUS is speculative till after their first auction. I can send you the audio of the presentation via drop box if you send me your email. Fluence (actually RWL Water) made US$60 last yr and will make US$90 this yr and this will continue to grow at a min 20%/yr but Richard is aiming to keep this around 30%/yr. China and the African MOU are NOT part of this....they are the blue sky on too of this. Ron (Lauder) spent a large chunk of money bringing these companies together (mostly done by Henry....Ron came to Henry and said I want to help people through water, Henry said ok, how do you want to do this...to which Ron said, you'll figure it out....Ron is the money, Henry is the brains....it's why Richsrd specifically wanted Henry to run the group as part of the deal), they have spent a ton on creating the most efficient decentralised desal....Nirobox....now they are aggressively rolling this out....40 sales this yr will be US$28m...that's on track...they are aiming for 100 next yr....that's US$70m for Nirobox alone! There is lot's and lot's going on...they are ready to invoice a contract for $11m that is being held up by legislation....again outside their control. How often does A2M update the market....not very often....they keep rising because they keep hitting targets. The ONLY way FLC can achieve this is by Q revenue updates. The combined group is very young so insto's DO NOT have this Q by Q revenue to go off....this simply takes time...end Oct then end Jan '18 then end Apr '18 etc....rising revenue Qby Q is the trigger. So, there may well be some months more re having time to buy at these prices but proof of rising revenue will lead to better forecasting by funds/insto's and then series demand....we only have about 360m shares....this is not a lot to go around as we get bigger. Even after GXY did their share reduction, I think they still have over 600m shares. Hathaway (Warren Buffet) has never done a share split...there are so few shares each is over $8,000! I am frustrated that I didn't show patience with the A2M story when I did own them at 75c 3-4yrs ago so I'm not making that mistake a second time.I have no issues whether yiu sell or stay....just trying to point out the probable future....it's very very hard to find a company at this stage that has the world as it's target market. SUBRE gets me even more excited than MABR....but it takes time for new tech to get adopted. How long has the electric car revolution been running....8yrs at least and now we are about to see it really kick off....there has been push back against it as it is about to cause MAJOR disruption....electric cars DO NOT need servicing....car dealerships make most of their money out of servicing....most garages and dealerships will really struggle. Big oil has stuffed up the opportunity....there are private companies rolling out charging stations aggressively in Europe. If you can make a plant more efficient (20% more through put), produce better quality water with no chemicals and pay this upgrade back in 2yrs instead of spending billions building a new plant it's a no brainer BUT there is a major push back by engineers as they don't get any work out of this....they would rather suck money out of a government body and build new plants. This is straight from discussions I had with Richard afterwards. The challenges will be overcome but give it time. We all have mobile ph's now but how early did you get one....mine was '97 but they where available many yrs before this....another example of the "take up takes time" concept. Richatd is aiming for a dual US listing in as little as 2yrs. This is a clue as to how big he thinks we will be. He will want us at $1B mcap to look at a US listing. A2M is approx. US$4B at present. Big for us but still a small cap re a US listing! For a US fund to even look at us and throw US$10m at us (change they found under the couch in the office) is a big deal....they wanted to throw US$25m at us but this was scaled back to US$10 as Fluence does not need the money. So....try to think longer term....Q's rather than weeks or even months and reread some of the presentations....many where panicking re China 1st production....they said end of Q3....1st module produced several days ahead of end of Q3. One point that Henry stressed....if they miss the US$90m re FY17, it will be because the work is on backlog and contracts are being held up outside of their control....NOT because the work is not there....the backlog is growing all the time and includes work NOT in the current US$90 est....so, they may well beat this. As Henry pointed out this is an educated guess....and if it's slightly under, it'll still hit the books, just Q1 '18 eg rather than Q4 '17. Crickey I'm not even being pd by the company to do this. Just think much longer term than a few months. nany where sceptical re A2M and their China strategy but behind the scences they put a solid term in place and built relationships. Fluence has 20 staff in China now and many have come from the companies they are about to sign contracts with....they have the right people. Henry re-enforced this...he is very selective if those he hires.
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Thanks for your reply. Your contributions to FLC discussion have been exceptional, same as from others. Just my thoughts. Nothing we post here will alter what the future brings. regards to holders.
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