Ann: Fluence Investor Presentation, page-126

Hi peterpanned, your post and thoughts are greatly appreciated as this is what stimulates discussion. Your concerns are valid and will hopefully prove unfounded. The base case scenario suggests that we ONLY reach 25% of line capacity during '18 re China...this is approx. 51 modules/wk or approx. 4-5 plants (each plant is estimated to have 4 containers on average and 3 modules per container) or approx. a little over 1 plant per partner every 2wks during '18. So, if this is our gradual ramp up and entirely possible, and our revenue is $250m by '18 and profit is $15m and our PE is 16.7 at $1.70/share....does the $1.70 seem low given our revenue will be growing at 50%/yr roughly to get to $250m by end '19.....given NAN hit $1B mcap with a maiden profit of $500k, at $1.70/share we would still be well sub $1B mcap....given our growing revenue and a more reasonable PE at this time of say 30 (many trade at considerably more than this during these rapid growth phases)....then we would have share price of say $3.00 by end '19 and an mcap of around say $1.2B.....suggesting a 4-5 fold run between now and end '19 over the next 2yrs?

Fluence estimates the total possible market across the 440m person rural opportunity as around $15b....so, approx. 2m modules or around 160,000 av. sized plants?.....this is 4 lines running flat out for 50yrs! no wonder they talk about building lines in other provinces after any partner has bought their first 60,000 modules. This is the first time I've tried to pull this apart a little further and it starts to make the total of 2,500 modules in CY 18 pretty small relative to the opportunity....but this may turn out to be the case and as more and more are rolled out then we will see the bell curve effect and massive uptake at some point. If they only get 10% of this market it is still 4 lines running flat out for 5 yrs!

does the above make sense, happy to others have provide their thoughts around this as well,

shower and bed now as up at 4am to get ready and get to the Melb Marathon....my run (42km) starts at 7am, wife is doing the 10km at 7:30am....she'll be waiting a few hrs after she finishes for me to finish.

kind regards, SEAH.