FLC fluence corporation limited

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3.9¢

Ann: Fluence June 2019 Quarterly Report Business Update, page-105

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morganp

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31/07/19

17:19

Post #: 39792196
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Originally posted by Pardner: ↑

I'm one of the "bailers"! My reasons are:

1. EBITDA will be lower than pcp
Revenue
They didn't give a revenue number for the 1Q and said revenue for the 2Q was stated to be $11.3m; the receipts from customers in the June 4C was $15m ; that's $26.3m. I struggle to see a revenue for the half more than 1H 2018 which was $33m.
Costs:
COS% for FY 2018 was 65%; use that
S&M, R&D, Admin total cost in the 2H 2018 was $25m; can't see it any lower in 1H 2019

2. They are signalling that the Ivory Close project will not close before the end of 3Q so no profitability in the 4 Q as previously guided.

3. I can't think my way through the ownership issues around San Quintin in Mexico.

So I reckon the FLC SP will be weak for another 6 months; maybe back to the 30's.

50 cents was my breakeven; so I bailed for 75% of my holding. FLC is likely to be a good investment but, for me, not now so much!

Expand

They did say Ivory Coast would close Q3 and reaffirmed EBITDA by Q4. They would be pretty brave to not hit this so close to the mark.

I know a lot are pessimistic and rightfully so but i hope it is just us thinking the worst. We now expect delays/issues from all deals.

FLC Price at posting: 47.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 3.9¢		Change -0.002(4.88%)		Mkt cap ! $42.32M

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Ann: Fluence June 2019 Quarterly Report Business Update, page-105

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Ann: Fluence June 2019 Quarterly Report Business Update, page-105

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