Um, ok. Just read the update and listened to the webcast. A mixed bag. Overall the company is still doing well, and the headline is that we're still aiming to reach EBITDA breakeven on a sustainable basis from next quarter (albeit, as some have noted, the proviso of fin. close for IC is now an explicit caveat). The other headline for me is that frankly amazing statement on the webcast from Henry, that Ronald Lauder has no intention of selling any of his holding now or in future. I'm staggered by that statement. There was no duty or duress to make it. Only the fact that the CEO/MD has such an intimate relationship with the majority shareholder could a statement like this be made. I mean, presumably it wouldn't have been made without the permission of Ronald Lauder, or from Henry's point of view (in his capacity as CEO) - without his complete belief that this was the case. What are the risks to Henry if Lauder decides to sell a few. I find this all quite bizarre in terms of disclosure in a corporate webcast, although it's great to hear as a shareholder.
Below the headlines the detail is a mixed bag. Kudos to Sell for spotting the decline of Nirobox sales. It seems that the Brazilian customer surprised them by opting for CES desal, and that is the main reason expectations were off. However, with $44m guided for SPS, and $20m of that for MABR-based solutions (unchanged apparently), and guidance now dropped to $26m - this appears to suggest we are only expecting $6m for Nirobox now (down from apparently $24m). The Brazil deal was for $10m right? So what about the other $8m in dropped Nirobox guidance? Where did that go? Is Nirobox shaping up to be a bit of a dud? Let's hope for a revival in sales I guess.
I'm delighted that we have the advanced talks with provinces to build final assembly hubs all over because it shows progreass (infrastructure-scale progress) is being made in China as we build out our delivery chains. However, I also find it quite amusing that we are now back to module sales. Emefcy started by wanting to manufacture and sell modules, then when RWL joined the party it was deemed that "no-one in China wants to buy just modules", precipitating the dawn of Aspiral, a packaged plug-and-play solution incorporating non-proprietary elements. Well, now it seems the partners believe they can source those components more cheaply that FLuence can - so we are back to building modules, trucking them to provincial assembly hubs where the bolt-ons are added by the partner/provincial clients, and sent to site. What an arc. I guess Aspiral will still be required for many contracts, both in China or shipped elsewhere, but for repeat clients it looks like we'll be back to selling modules only. Don't get me wrong, i'm delighted with whatever it takes to create mass adoption and i LOVE the mention of multi-year deals.
SQ is obviously a setback, but I like that they've responded proactively to these execution issues (which appear to have been outside the control of the company, or could they have better vetted partners?). A non-dilutive solution is appreciated, but there's risk in this too. Can someone more erudite than me comment on our jump from 51% partner to 94% partner in Desaladora Kenton? Does this equate to larger recurring revenues for us now? Or am I sizing this up wrong?
That's it I guess. Financial close for IC is crucial, and should happen between now an October (supposed to be this quarter, but did they suggest perhaps the start of Q4?). Once this is done it's full steam ahead, everything else is just potential short-term delays that we've experienced here before (i.e. things getting pushed from one quarter to another). More recurring revenue deals before years end is encouraging too.
I've probably missed a lot, but whatevs. Good luck all.
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Um, ok. Just read the update and listened to the webcast. A...
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