They also said there will be a separate debt facility set up to meet any short term cash outflows for the Ivory Coast project (from the Q1 quarterly investor call). I agree, they wouldn't start construction without financial close... that just wouldn't make any sense.
I believe debt is a major source of funding we are not focusing on.
Debt is a great funding source if you have a high degree of confidence that it will be serviced with an ongoing source of income.
That is why Fluence go to such lengths to arrange BOOT structures, Fluence effectively help arrange the funding for the customer e.g. San Quintin we have the North American Development Bank (NADB), and for the Ivory Coast we have the Israel Discount Bank who will in term pay Fluence disbursements which will come as 'financing' cash inflows and not 'operating' cash inflow.
In fact in the quarterly business update, Francesco flagged a US$3.5m drawdown from the NADB for San Quintin in Q2.
So while the operating cash outflow for Q2 is looking to be US$6.5m, there will be at least US$3.5m in financing cash inflow... so with all else being equal, the net cash outflow for Q2 would be US$3m. Leaving US$21.3m in the bank at the end of June 2019.
I am pretty sure that the larger than expected quarterly cash burn of US$14.5m is the trigger for much of the selling ... it would scare a lot of investors off. But what they might be missing is that Fluence have some debt (off-balance sheet (NADB) and on-balance sheet (US$50m facility)) levers that are not captured in operating activities. They also have the benefit of knowing what is in their pipeline, and their message is that there will be a significant improvement in Q3 ... to me, that can only mean some volume sales are coming in Q2 and Q3 for our Aspiral, SUBRE and Nirobox products.
So it comes down to how much you trust management, if you believe they will deliver on their objectives this year... this pull back is a great opportunity to accumulate.
For me, I believe management's forecasting post merger has been pretty accurate, give or take 5% which is impressive in my eyes. As such, when they say Q3 cash outflows will be significantly lower, I am confident that will be the case. And for Q4, it should be close to break-even, and if that is achieved .. we will be laughing to the bank.
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- Ann: Fluence March 2019 Quarterly Report Business Update
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They also said there will be a separate debt facility set up to...
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5.7¢ |
Change
-0.001(1.72%) |
Mkt cap ! $61.86M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
5.8¢ | 5.8¢ | 5.4¢ | $1.436K | 25.75K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 5488 | 5.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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5.7¢ | 16699 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 5488 | 0.054 |
1 | 10000 | 0.052 |
2 | 110000 | 0.051 |
2 | 59100 | 0.050 |
1 | 12500 | 0.048 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.057 | 16699 | 1 |
0.058 | 112133 | 2 |
0.059 | 75000 | 1 |
0.060 | 102723 | 2 |
0.061 | 514816 | 2 |
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