FLC 2.94% 16.5¢ fluence corporation limited

@jamesc666You may need to revise your analysis as to my eye...

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    @jamesc666

    You may need to revise your analysis as to my eye there are a couple flaws in your analysis.
    You are mixing up "bookings" with revenue and it makes a big difference to your figures.
    Bookings is new business signed for the quarter, only some of which may have converted to revenue.
    If Q2 revenue was $25.7m and of that CES accounts for $19.8m then that leaves $5.9m for SPS and Service/Recurring Revenue.

    Guesstimating based on 2021/Q1 22 figures, service revenue should be in the range of $1.9m+ depending on start date of the annual $1m Liaoning O&M contract. (Q1 service/recurring rev was $1.9m).
    SPS is therefore approx $4m for Q2. They likely didn't highlight this as a headline figure because it is low compared to their annual forecasted target of $45m, however it will mean a very big H2 for SPS.
    Therefore approx $3.2 million outside China SPS. The largest contribution likely came from the $1.9m Egyptian Niroflex contract.
    Approx $800k in China SPS. (Anhui SUBRE retro, Zhejiang Service Area SUBRE key contributions).

    There is no such thing as an Aspiral M3.

    Fluence are also choosing to include the $1m USD Anhui SUBRE upgrade contract as a Q2 booking, but technically it was announced in March 2022 so should have been a Q1 booking (they used that quarterly to focus on the new CEO, so didn't really talk about this).

    So looking forward:
    $144m USD revenue forecast.
    $60.2m H1 revenue achieved.
    $49.2m from backlog to convert to revenue in H2.
    So currently $109.4m of business is locked in.
    They will need at least $35m of newly signed contracts to convert to revenue in H2 to achieve guidance.

    SPS revenue:
    $7.3m Q1.
    $4m Q2.
    $11.3m H1.
    Therefore H2 SPS needs to be $33.7m to achieve their target.

    If forecast is achieved then H2 should be in the range of:
    $83.8m total revenue.
    $4.2m service/recurring revenue.
    $33.7m SPS.
    $45.9m CES.
    I'd expect SPS to be weighted heavily to Q4, as per usual Q4 is always the strongest quarter.
    It depends on the exact timing of the shipping of the Cambodian PS3 SUBRE spirals, these may land in Q3, but could push into Q4 if there are any delays. It also depends on the classification of certain projects as SPS or CES categories. The SupplyCore packaged plants are not MABR or Nirobox but could possibly be classified as SPS. Some of the lithium projects that have both been completed and are in backlog are containerized, but will they classify that as SPS or CES? It doesn't really matter from a revenue standpoint, but it does affect the visibility of forecast for each category.

    Don't take any of this as gospel, I'm just trying to fit everything in based on what has been forecasted, and my translation of the Q1 & Q2 quarters.
    Obviously nothing is set in stone and work can get pushed into 2023 if there are COVID or political delays.
 
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