FLC (ASX) Ann: Fluence September 2019 Quarterly Report Business Update

Originally posted by stockrock: ↑

If you look at FLC with the lens of a long term shareholder... it is likely to be a jaded view ... the delays... the missed guidance.. the capital raisings... the share price..

However, if you take a step back and look at it from a new investors lens... this is probably what you see:

1. Net operating cash outflow of US$4.8m, with cash post raising + SPP of over US$35m (net of fees).. that is at least 7 quarters of cash with a burn of US$4.8m .. in other words.. plenty of cash
2. US$40m debt facility coming online in early 2020
3. US$50m debt facility already in place
4. Ivory Coast to drive revenue in the next few years... and O&M yet to be announced. As a new holder, I don't care if it closes this quarter or next.. so long as it closes
5. San Quintin, another nice US$10m in O&M per year for 30 years.. again, as long as it recommences construction its all good, early 2020 suits me.
6. China MABR plants have gone from 2 to 88 (nice number), in 2 years... smells exponential to me.. can it continue? Oh they signed two new bulk agreements.. and the CEO has told us that has opened doors to even more possible partnerships.. ones (bigger ones) that we would not have had access to even 6-9 months ago?
7. Nirobox drops 7 units in Q3 and possibly bulk supply in the future? Sounds very promising...
8. Share price / market cap is still so low... is there a chance it might drip more? Sure.. an IC coast delay into 2020 will do that.. but what does that mean in terms of bigger picture? One thing.. another buying opportunity.. because it doesn't matter if it closes this quarter or next.. these are decades of revenues (assuming they get the O&M) we are talking here.. and the bigger picture makes the Ivory Coast actually look qutie small.
9. Business appears to be focused on and showing real progress in shifting their product mix from low to high margin products...
10. These guys are oh so close to becoming cash flow neutral and then positive.. they have approx 7 quarters at the current burn rate to achieve this, assuming they don't tap into any of the debt facilities.. if both debt facility are up and running.. they have an even longer funding runway..
11. Aussie instos have bought in, with over a dozen taking a piece of the pie in the recent cap raise. This raises the company's profile and shows that their business strategy/model is gaining wider acceptance and recognition in the ASX (note most if not all these AU instos would have passed on the Fluence story in the Nov18 cap raise... 12 months later, they have all jumped on board.. why?)

FUNDING SORTED, TICK
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH POTENTIAL IN SHORT TERM.TICK
COMPANY STRATEGY FOCUSED ON MARGIN GROWTH. TICK
SHARE PRICE SUBDUED DUE TO SHORT TERM ISSUES. TICK
AUSSIE INSTOS HAVE BOUGHT IN EN MASSE TICK
MORE UPSIDE THAN DOWNSIDE RISK. TICK

Conclusion... inflection point is near.. Ivory Coast is the only short term at-risk item that could drive the price lower... if that is alleviated, the share price will naturally recover and break into new territory.. payoff time is not far off at all IMO.

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Hi @stockrock,

At this time of doom and gloom, don’t mind me re-post your brilliant points you made in October. This is a most reassuring read to see where we are.

It is posted here: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/41122816/single

The fundamentals has actually improved, what I would speculate is there could be a fund or two who took up the CR at 44c needed to liquidate their holdings due to their internal issues.

I feel the fundamental question is would these justify our current market cap?

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(20min delay)
Last 12.0¢		Change 0.010(9.09%)		Mkt cap ! $129.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
11.5¢	12.5¢	11.0¢	$43.08K	370.8K

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