Hi Relax,Assuming overheads outside of manufacturing and staff...

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morganp

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29/10/19

10:36

Post #: 41116731
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Originally posted by Relax1: ↑

Fluence is still essentially a loss making startup.

But now with a bit of traction in China there is a shift towards the higher margin 35 - 50% margin MABR & SUBRE projects as they sign up more partners into long term deals. These deals have not really started the revenue generation portion yet, so there is the ability for the SPS side of the business to grow between 100 to 300 percent in 2020, necessitating the need to install a second manufacturing line in the latter part of the year to help fill demand moving into 2021.

The Ivory Coast project will give a base low margin revenue of about $80 million USD during 2020 and slightly more in 2021.
This will give a bit of financial breathing room to help cover the basic admin costs of Fluence.

The desalination project in San Quinton is also a $40 million USD plus project, so once that starts up again there will be some immediate revenue recognition plus ongoing construction revenue.

Then there are projects like the $10 million USD Brazilian desalination plant, and $20 million USD Egyptian desalination equipment supply.

2020 will also mark the first long-term recurring revenue streams from the Bahamas project. With more to come from San Quinton and Peru once they have been constructed.

So yes, right now the balance sheet doesn't look great, but in 2020 and beyond there is a lot of upside, with work shifting towards higher margin projects.
The recent capital injection from the CR and possible SPP funds will also help with winning more future work, while closing the $40 million in project capital from Generate Capital will also help to alleviate pressure on cash in bank.

With the startup of Ivory Coast, San Quintin, the other large projects plus more MABR & SUBRE wins, it is not too hard to see that Fluence should be able to bridge that $4 to $8 million quarterly cashflow gap (of prior quarters) to be profitable on a quarterly cashflow basis in 2020 and 2021.

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Hi Relax,

Assuming overheads outside of manufacturing and staff costs. What do you think is the break even qtr amount for the company. Im still trying to work this out, finding it tough with the lumpy sales/delays and product ranges with varying profit margins.

I hope the restructuring costs management talk about will also help to bring costs down.

FLC Price at posting: 43.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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