This greenfield application in Jamaica is the SUBRE version of the Orenco MABR deal. Fluence are selling SUBRE modules for integration with other wastewater plant types to increase capacity, efficiency and treatment quality. Likely the data from the Aspiral units that are running around the world would have been sufficient to prove what these modules can do. Not in this particular case, but in future, you may get your wish of seeing MABR and MBR working in conjunction, but rather than getting it in an Aspiral container, we may get it at a much larger scale in a SUBRE form. Would be interesting to see a full scale MBR plant with SUBRE in the first stage of treatment, you would think that it would lead to longer life of the MBR membranes and less fouling, as the water would be "cleaner" before hitting the membranes. Greenfield opens up the whole world of wastewater treatment possibilities and opportunities.
These Jamaican versions are quite small compared to the size of the retrofits they are aiming for. I believe each SUBRE module is a half sized MABR module (a MABR module is 2 x 1m high SUBRE modules combined together).
370,000 GPD = 1400 m3/d = 12 SUBRE modules
200,000 GPD = 757 m3/d = 6 SUBRE modules
Not big dollars here, but if replicated across the world, opens up many chances to see massive module sales.
They don't really talk about it, but Fluence have an Ecobox containerised solution that they build out of Argentina (for sale across South America), which combines around 5 different treatment types specially for re-use. In this Jamaican greenfield application, SUBRE is being combined with another wastewater treatment plant type, so it can't really be said that SUBRE itself is specifically for re-use, depends on the other treatment plant type it is being integrated into.
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@Dungiven you said
here that:
Great to see SUBRE launch sooner than expected. Hope that starts well with an order, but looking at Oxymem and Zeelung i'm not expecting it to any less of a slow burn than Aspiral. Speaking of which, on P15 there is a timeline which ends with "Feb 2019: Additional Aspiral plants in Hebei and Zhejiang Provinces". The only Aspiral sales ann we got in Feb was for the first one in Latin America, to the beverage company in Argentina. So, are these fresh sales? Maybe not announced as they are from an exisiting partner, or in regions where we already have footprint. I believe that, if so, these would represent the first Chinese sales which the company deemed not worthy of an ASX ann. China MABR sales just business as usual now? The Chinese teams of Fluence are really ramping up their Chinese hiring at the moment, especially around electrical engineering and product development engineering. Looks like they are planning to have a fair bit of quote work coming in, from the Chinese region itself. Across the spectrum of treatment types, life of plants is between 5 and 25 years, so there are always going to be opportunities for replacement, upgrades and expansions of current plants.
In their latest investor deck, Fluence says that the SUBRE pipeline is "Significant and growing." Cannacord's latest analysis is forecasting 2000 modules for 2019 and 8000 for 2020. When I initially read this, I thought they were crazy. But the addition of greenfield potential has added a huge market of opportunities. To reach 2000 modules for 2019, there are going to be a lot of installations in Q3 and Q4 this year, and 2020 is going to be busy! I believe that the upgrade SUBRE market will potentially move alot faster than the Aspiral market, as there should be less red tape around an upgrade to an existing plant basin, as opposed to having the build a new plant and planning out the installation of new piping/connections, etc. Operators also have more clarity around their portfolio of existing plants under management, and what is specially required to keep their plants in line with regulations and demand, with SUBRE solving problems at a very low cost compared to building a new plant. We will see, but I am quite excited about the potential.
In regards to Hebei and Zhejiang Aspiral, I believe these may only be small pilot sized applications, so may not be financially significant at the moment, but may have implications for future sales which we will hear about later.
