Following my old post re:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-sbi-contract-generates-significant-revenue-and-ebitda-uplift.7665145/page-19?post_id=70691871We now have new data for set of EBITDA projection:
CBI lock 11m-13m
SBI lock 25m-28m
WLA estimate 7m
We have roughly 45m EBITDA estimation.
Given the current EBITDA number came at 27.4 with old SBI contract expectation is 9m EBITDA, it is unclear where the rest of EBITDA came from, might be interchange fee. Although i find it weird they charge card holder interchange fee from the same bank?
So, to be conservative, lets just use the 45m EBITDA figures.
EV currently sits around 194m if we take into account we are only 80% of TSI.
So we have EV/EBITDA of 4.3, not very demanding given the low risk of these revenue base.
I sold most of my holding too early given that i am unsure how reliable the management guidance is. With the current presentation dataset, i have decided to repurchase my some of my holding back and might look to add if there is weakness in SP.
Hindsight, i should have been able to trust management more given that it is indeed a contract revenue, not much can be played as it is not a forecasted number.
Medium term risk is CBI contract expiring 2027, which is still quite a while.
Also, interesting to see new SBI contract generate superior EBITDA compared to old one, it shows that TSI somewhat have a level of pricing power.
(20min delay)