@dwlewis
I would hope most LTH here would be somewhat aware of the potential for a significant revenue uplift next year, well, apart from the whingers we seem to have attracted lately (although both crymonger and his alter ego account have been silent since we stayed above $5).
At the risk of summarising FY26 potential too drastically (and at the risk of making it too easy for crymonger and his mate to hang on), I've put a rough 'back of the envelope' guesstimate together. The basis of which I think (still) sells the potential a little short. Anyway, give me your critique and see what you all think.
Starting with the most recent business update, NS pointed to this slide as a basis of what we can expect.
If we take the lower end expectations we get $70M + $14M (organic growth @ 20%) + $42M TATA + $42M BANKIT = $166M. Another 40% higher if the upper regions are hit. And that doesn't include any increase in interchange fee and we know FindiPay revenue (as part of FY25 revenue) is negligible. And certainly doesn't include any positive synergies from the acquisitions or improvements in processes and operations to gain additional benefits from those operations acquired, which in itself could be significant.
But, that basic summary is around the mark to what I think they'll achieve.
My summary below though, doesn't include:
- Any increase in interchange fees until FY27. Based on NS quote that approx. 8,000 ATM's would yield around $10M straight to the bottom line, so by FY27 we should have at least double that number;
- The 3,912 (old SBI contract) ATM's that are now available to switch to FindiPay WLA locations;
- The 3,000 TATA ATM's currently warehoused that can be utilised in FindiPay WLA locations;
- CBI and SBI contract extensions (except for 1 qtr estimates for the 638 CBI ATM's). That leaves a further 2,293 SBI additional ATM's to hit revenues in FY27;
- Of the 900 UBI ATM's I've only included 1 qtr of expected revenues as they aren't expected to be fully located until Dec 2025;
- I'm assuming the BC Max Centre rollout and any additional revenue from that operation, is covered in the 'organic growth', but wouldn't be surprised if this achieves upside potential.
And if FY26 surprises to the upside, FY27 should be just as exciting. Who was it that said this will be a $1B listing? We're at just shy of $300M now (mkt cap) and revenue is about to triple.... Once these recent acquisitions are bedded down and optimised, I'm thinking something even bigger than originally thought by IPO...All IMO.![]()
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@dwlewisI would hope most LTH here would be somewhat aware of...
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