I'm not sure what the plan is for concentrate. Is it the...

I'm not sure what the plan is for concentrate. Is it the sulfate? That'll be 25% Al2O3, so you are saying they will make 50Ktpa HPA, which is still more than the entire market. So you're also saying you will have to cut the revenue by a quarter, if not more. The final purification stage(s) is expensive and tricky to go from an intermediate sulfate precursor to final product.

It can't be calcined HPA of less than 4N, because you know what that is worth - $1500-3,000/t. The price differential between 3N alumina and 4N isn't just because of a limited supply of 3N. As I said previously, Wagerup (and indeed other alumina producers globally) produce 3N grade alumina products for specialty ceramic and refractory purposes by the kilotonnes per annum. This market is well understood, and the cost of 4N has until now partly been underwritten by the costs involved in producing 4N from 3N calcined alumina, which requires a lot of hot acid.

Concentrate implies at least some form of purity, and availability to purification. This to me suggests sulphate precursors, and further refining. So it's $300M to make 200ktpa of precursor now, for which you'll be paid 30% less than the differential in cost between the precursor's content in 4N HPA and the cost of the offtaker converting it.

This can be directly tested by referring to A4N's process which, invariably, relies on an aluminium sulphate precursor they intend to buy off Wesfarmers and run through a SXEW circuit to produce 4N and 5N HPA. To produce 10Ktpa their capex is $180M+, and costs run in around the same as the kaolin processors like FYI.

So KRR is planning to be the Wesfarmers of the supply chain and sell high purity sulfate or amsul to Chinese counterparties, and be the 40% of their production costs. If we take A4N as typical of the cost curves, 40% of $14K is $5K/t as sulfate.

Which, on an Al2O3 basis, is actually $1250/t. But, bonus, the capital intensity of producing intermediate alum is $1500/t for 200Ktpa and $300M in capex, so if high purity alum is your game and someone's willing to part with $1250/t for buy it from you, then knock yourself out.

I really am struggling to see how producing bulk amsul or alum is going to make this fly.