Ann: FNP Update on General Trading, page-27

all is on track at fnp. sure they had a month or so delay in the new manufacturing launches but that is meaningless even for fy19.

so if fy19 revenue midpoint estimates are 515m and there is a strong pipeline of capex flowing theough to sales growth in fy 20 and fy 21, i think a reasonable revenue estimate for fy20 at 35% growth (less than the 45% forecast for fy19) is 700m and then 25% growth for fy21 is 910m.

im not sure what their ebitda margins and npat will look like then but i suspect they will be looking at around 100mill npat which puts their p/e down around 15 (i havnt check the market cap recently but im guessing its around 1.5b). that would be with a solid ongoing growth runway due to structural and industry tailwinds etc.

so im happy sitting long with my entry sub $4 and i doubt it will be dipping below $5 ever again so i cant understand the rationale for a short. the p/e looks expensive but the growth runway is clear and execution risk looks minimal.
oh well each to their own i guess.