OJC 5.71% 16.5¢ the original juice co. ltd

"...with our Distribution into China all set up courtesy Norman...

  1. 610 Posts.
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    "...with our Distribution into China all set up courtesy Norman Li"
    Are you really serious?
    What evidence do you have that a distribution network has been set up for juice products? Perhaps for other well established products for his business. A daigou network will not be successful for products that do not have established consumer demand. (For anyone who has had any experience in consumer products they will know this).

    But how much juice has been sold through his distribution network to date? This would hardly instil confidence for a possible suitor.

    I would argue that Coca Cola has a significantly bigger and broader distribution footprint in China than your Mr. Li. They would use their own network not Mr. Li's daigou.

    So that would reduce Coke's valuation of FOD. What supposedly has been set up in China is of no value to Coke.

    What juices would they want? None of the juices have been flavour tested with Chinese consumers in any significant capacity. Coke would NEVER try to sell untested products into any market, much less a market in which they are so well known and respected as China. They would do their own research in house.
    They might like 'The Original Juice' Black label. But why didn't they buy it when it was last up for sale? If you say they have this on their radar then they could have easily snapped this up without all the baggage of the FOD company.

    The 'baggage' as I refer to it is a local business that has underperformed up to the Corona virus. During the Corona virus it has been hard to judge because the shelves of everything have been depleted.
    Many/most of the original products have gone from the shelves over the last couple of years leaving no 'core' or 'anchor' products and only time will tell if the newly packaged products (which do look great) will fare better. But distribution is piecemeal and fragmented across retailers / markets and it has been this way from the outset. It is crystal clear that FOD has not convinced Woolworths to get on board. Product range in WW has always been poor. FOD has a better relationship with Coles.
    Their last financials highlighted that the 'Cost of Sales' for the business was at an extremely high and unsustainable level. (As I laid out in a previous post)

    The promise of China has not materialised and remains short of promised funding for which I believe the explanation was dubious.

    So for me, I do not think Coke would be interested in FOD at all.
    They would only offer peanuts if they did.
    Plenty of other better established juice companies out there...

    FOD is better to do it alone but I do not know how they can move forward.
    China was the jewel but the key driver has held back promised funding.
    The discussions around the boardroom table and those with lawyers would be very, very interesting.....
    All my opinion only..
 
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