The anecdotal evidence of strong juice sales shared by members...

The anecdotal evidence of strong juice sales shared by members in this forum is really promising. If members have the chance to take a quick photo in the store that would be a big help. Also, it would be really interesting to see what FOD's shelf space looks like vs other brands such as Nudie etc. Also whether at this time of peak demand there is any discounting in our products or our competitions. Finally, if someone does happen to take a picture of a recently restocked shelf it would be great to see how many skews (flavours) are on offer.

The empty shelves clearly demonstrate demand, however, the key metric is going to be turnover. How often is that shelf being restocked, emptied and then restocked again? To what degree has FOD been able to fulfill the current high demand? The last announcement on the 23rd March states that the factory is open and fully operational, but it doesn't indicate that we are running at a higher capacity than usual. It also doesn't comment on whether we have been able to continuously source raw products such as fruit and packaging and what price we are paying compared to historics. The final bottleneck obviously is logistics and whether we have been able to access timely shipping to our customers.

Juice sales for 1H FY20 were $17,960,000, +19% vs the previous half. If we experience the same level of growth for the second half we should see sales of $21,372,000, making total FY20 juice sales of $39,332,000. This number is just shy of the $40mln sales guidance that management have given us for the total business. I.e. the $40mln in guidance does not include ANY sanitizer sales, and given that as of the 20th March we had $3.8mln in sanitizer orders you can infer that the $40mln sales guidance will be easily surpassed.

The problem with modelling out FOD, even in this basic format, is that the assumptions you have to make are relatively unfounded. Its finger in the air kind of stuff. If management were to share more information that could reduce the number of assumptions investors are required to make, it could provide more clarity on the stability & growth of earnings. One of the key reasons FOD has few institutional investors is that it does not provide the metrics that more sophisticated investors require in order to make an investment decision. Institutions demand would undoubtedly increase the share price north of 10 cents and provide a level of stability in the share price compared to the wild swings that a retail heavy register generates.

I would encourage all investors to reach out to the company and request that they provide more detailed information when the company makes announcements going forward. A good start would be contacting the companies Investor Relations whos contact information can be found at the bottom of all FOD market announcements.