I agree with @Invested12 , we have to be a little more patient, there are 1000 Woollies and 800 Coles stores in Australia and the Shot's range consists of 3 flavours, so if both retailers chose to stock 50% of stores then that's 2700 boxes (1800 stores * 50% * 3 flavours) of shots just to get initial ranging per store. From the anecdotal evidence, it seems like stores are selling out in less than a week, if not faster, so I do imagine that FOD is struggling to keep up with Coles and Woolies demand as they scale up production. I would expect Tony would be running a pretty tight inventory initially so that he doesn't outlay too much capital initially before the product is proven. Additionally given that this is a new product I would suspect that both Coles and Woolies may be a little slow on restocking orders themselves as they too are attempting to gauge long term demand. We are going into winter with a backdrop of Covid in all consumers minds, I can't think of a better time to launch a product such as the Shots.
My expectation is that once ranged across the supermarkets the Shots product should generate ~$4mln of Revenue for FOD, which is approx an additional 10% on FOD's annual sales. Obviously, Petrol and Convenience distribution would increase revenue meaningfully again.
In regards to Mojo Gut shots, I was reading an online review that described them as a Probiotic that tastes exactly the same as their Kombucha line. My question is why pay $3.50 for a tiny version of a $4.00 beverage. I struggle to see the differentiation. I do see a differentiation with the FOD shots given the ingredients profile vs a standard bottle of juice. I actually see the biggest competition for the Shots product being Coffee. I think there is a very strong argument that the Shots product would make an exceptional coffee alternative, especially in the afternoon when people may be looking for a non-caffeine alternative low in calories.
I am hoping that we may be getting to a point where there is a tangible minimum amount of Shots sales data that Tony can present to the market. He just needs to demonstrate that this product has had strong early adoption and illustrate a pathway to grow the product over the next 12 months and the impact it could have on FOD's earnings. Shots should be a high margin product thereby really helping us move to operating CF breakeven and beyond. I remain very underwhelmed with the amount of explicit data that the company releases especially given the company underperformance. I just keep asking myself why won't they release more data that I know they have? This is the point that puts a knot in my stomach and keeps me up at night
FOD Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)