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08/07/19
15:38
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Originally posted by Birchcorp:
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That definitely confirms PIC have no voting block with Noble, so great news that we were able to absorb all these shares. We obviously knew this was happening, due to the obvious sales on the JSE and the flood over here (taking advantage of the arbitrage). The volume explains the SP drop given we had to absorb 23M shares...plus absorb the weaker hands... It looks as though not too many other people sold in this period due the volume sold in the past few weeks that would have married with the PIC sales. Looking at the supply/demand for next week, it's promising, and looks to be trending back up! It would be tough buying a share at the moment...line up!! Why would they sell? Let's guess... 1. Fund manager discretion. This is a business decision not a speculative punt at future prices. They made money in the past year. Booking gains/losses. Many reasons here... 2. They have been holding for over 6 years and at 4-6c. This represents a good deal for PIC. 3. This represents a liquid time that there is many buyers, all the way up to and past financial close there is an opportunity for anyone that needs money to sell down.4. The big one for me. If you are the funder (of which we don't know), but thiss almost gives away the identity, then you would want to reduce your risk. As a thought, imagine providing our company a $250M loan (arbitrary number) and also holding 113M shares... this represents much risk for one group (PIC)... It would be almost irresponsible to hold this risk/ position. My guess is they were required to reduce risk as they are a funder! So are three funders are: 1. Noble 2. PIC 3. IDC This is all starting to make sense now!!!
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Originally posted by Birchcorp:
↑
That definitely confirms PIC have no voting block with Noble, so great news that we were able to absorb all these shares. We obviously knew this was happening, due to the obvious sales on the JSE and the flood over here (taking advantage of the arbitrage). The volume explains the SP drop given we had to absorb 23M shares...plus absorb the weaker hands... It looks as though not too many other people sold in this period due the volume sold in the past few weeks that would have married with the PIC sales. Looking at the supply/demand for next week, it's promising, and looks to be trending back up! It would be tough buying a share at the moment...line up!! Why would they sell? Let's guess... 1. Fund manager discretion. This is a business decision not a speculative punt at future prices. They made money in the past year. Booking gains/losses. Many reasons here... 2. They have been holding for over 6 years and at 4-6c. This represents a good deal for PIC. 3. This represents a liquid time that there is many buyers, all the way up to and past financial close there is an opportunity for anyone that needs money to sell down.4. The big one for me. If you are the funder (of which we don't know), but thiss almost gives away the identity, then you would want to reduce your risk. As a thought, imagine providing our company a $250M loan (arbitrary number) and also holding 113M shares... this represents much risk for one group (PIC)... It would be almost irresponsible to hold this risk/ position. My guess is they were required to reduce risk as they are a funder! So are three funders are: 1. Noble 2. PIC 3. IDC This is all starting to make sense now!!!
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PIC did sell about 24M shares as stated in the notice. The question is will they sell the remaining 89M that they still hold? If they are taking a profit and getting their purchase price back after 4-6 years as Birchcorp indicates in his post then they may hang in for the big picture. It is a good open cast deposit with the odd billion of tonnes of resource which is superior to the declining Witbank deposits. And it is now funded. I still have my shares from when they were $1.00. Not that I paid that but it would have been good to sell. I think I will hang in as I feel that RES will trade 20C short term and 40c in 6-12 months.