Good but not great results. I give it a 'pass' mark, and if...

Good but not great results. I give it a 'pass' mark, and if there is a sufficient enough pull back, I would be a happy buyer of Amcor at the right price.

I am not a huge fan of adjusted figures. The headline looks perhaps stronger than the real results show (EPS growth of 11% yadi yadi). But, digging down through the details, what I see is a very weak 4Q largely due to Russia's attack on Ukraine. This has had impacts on their operations, and they are looking to sell three of their assets. So that has been the major headwind in the fourth quarter - which if you remove, makes the adjusted figures look good.


My preferred metrics for Amcor is to focus on full year free cash flow. The real result shows that it has slightly dropped from FY21. Not much though. In the end, they have been able to demonstrate that they have pricing power, that they are acting as an inflation hedge, and that they are a solid growing business in normal times. Net cash from operations is strong, CAPEX is OK, etc.


The outlook is moderate, and it's probably this that may drive some short term weakness in the company's share price. Again, part of this is due to Russia-Ukraine. The other part is a material increase in net interest expenses (from $120 to $210-230m, reflecting higher interest rates). But we should still see organic growth (volume and price mix), as well as share buy backs (not sure at these prices that's the best investment tbh). So going forward, still happy with this dividend grower.