Ann: Form 8-K - Q3 22 Results, page-6

The question to my mind is, what's the fair value? It definitely seems like a high quality stock trading cheaper than other high quality stocks. After the previous results, I said something to the effect of "$17 is the new $15.50", and I reckon anything sub $17 seems pretty reasonable still.

Even with the jump this morning, it's still trading around 40c shy of the $AMCR US listing at $18.10 in AUD ($13.12 USD). So small arb there I guess. Looking at it's FCF valuations on a historical basis, it's trading at it's fair / 10yr averages. My guess is that in the current market where value is trumping growth, and considering they are running ahead of schedule with Bemis integration, they should be trading higher than their 10yr average.


And looking at a few industrial peers, it's trading at a higher FCF yield and growing quicker than most. Cleanaway is facing headwinds and struggling with it's integration, yet is trading 30% more. Wesfarmers is growing slower and is almost double the price. Goodman group is growing at a comparable basis (people think it's growing quicker, but dig in to the EPS CAGR and you will see they are line and ball), yet it is almost triple the price on a free cash flow basis or about double on an earnings basis.



Hard to find better value out there on the ASX at the moment. If you know any, do let me know!