Not a bad update, if you are willing to look through.
FY24 forecasts are pretty resilient. What we are seeing is a pull back in 2H23 and 1H24, and then returning to growth. This is driven by declining volumes, increasing prices (moaty!), and flat EBIT margins (10.6% in 23, 10.4% in 24). The business is holding up quite well despite the slow down in consumer spending and customers inventories being worked through.
On a valuation basis, the current share price is better than reasonable but arguably not cheap:
* PE(24)=12.7x
* P/FCF(24)=7.1% or 14.1x
* Dividend=5.7%, and growing.
If you believe there is a return to growth of MSD in 24 and HSD thereafter (which seems reasonable to me), then a 7.1% yield with some 6-8% EPS growth is a decent sleep-easy investment.
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Not a bad update, if you are willing to look through. FY24...
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Last
$14.40 |
Change
-0.070(0.48%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.605B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$14.46 | $14.46 | $14.38 | $18.83M | 1.308M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 24624 | $14.40 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$14.42 | 2581 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 19765 | 14.400 |
1 | 103 | 14.390 |
3 | 4260 | 14.380 |
1 | 4536 | 14.370 |
2 | 3523 | 14.360 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.420 | 2581 | 2 |
14.430 | 19765 | 1 |
14.440 | 1566 | 2 |
14.470 | 700 | 1 |
14.490 | 2207 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 03/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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