This is all speculation and assumption on my part.
The SP is obviously a reflection of market cap and shares on issue.
"Inferred" resources can't be used for financial modelling. Same for the outcropping material which is not included in any resource estimates.
"60%" grade is for unprocessed iron ore, and we know from earlier trials that the impurities liberate and the grade improves with minimal processing. My expectation is the crushing and screening of the DSO will remove a lot of the impurities and improve the average grade above 62% - but we will need to wait and see for that.
$100 USD per tonne is the long term price the company used. The current IO price is $128/t, so almost a 30% premium on the numbers below for the DSO and main resouce -
https://www.marketindex.com.au/iron-oreRight now, the share price is at all all time low despite having:
- ~4.5mt of indicated DSO resource at Bekisopa (worth about $500m USD @ $100 USD/t for 60% grade)
- There should be another ~1.5mt of measured or indicated DSO added to the resource for the PFS - which has already been drilled, but we are waiting on assays.
- ~35mt of inferred "Green Steel" resource identified in the Southern Zone of Bekisopa (worth about $5.6B USD @ $160 USD/t for about 68% grade)
- ~150mt of inferred "unweathered" main resource at Bekisopa (worth about $15B USD @ $100 USD for 60% grade)
Current total resource is about 196mt with a total "in ground" value of almost $20B USD (the company can't say this, but I can - so long as I say it is based on my calculations).We will need to have another raise because Paul wants to drill out Satrokala. Personally, I do not want him to do a dilutionary raise down at this level, and I would object to a raise at anything under $0.30c.
How much will he want to raise? At which price will he be forced to raise at? All of this will influence the shares on issue. Obviously the lower the shares on issue, the better.
Adding another 2mt - 5mt tonnes of indicated DSO by drilling out Satrokala won't add a heap of value, nor would adding 10mt of indicated resource - given we already have close to 200mt of mostly inferred resource with almost $0 value attributed to it. Most people are smart enough to understand the resource is in the ground, even if it can't be reported on.
If we have to do a raise under $0.20c,
my very strong preference is to raise the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM to get the PFS completed.
The things that will help get our share price above $0.30c are:
- the formalisation and passing into law of the new mining code.
- AKO applying for, and being granted, the mining licence (unfortunately we have no idea how long that will take to be granted as there is no precedent for timelines under the new mining code).
- An in principle or even binding off take agreement for part or all of our 2ktpa production
- A pre-payment or strategic investment from the off take partner (where the carrot to incentivise this could be taking our DSO would mean first rights to the green steel).
Again, my very strong preference is we don't raise unless we have to, and if we have to, we only raise the absolute minimum until the share price rebounds.I don't think there will be enough time to drill out and assay a maiden resource at Satrokala, AND then would likely then require a second drilling campaign to be able to achieve a measured / indicated resource that could be included in the PFS in November or December. We also know there are weather related constraints, so all of the drilling would need to be done in the dry season
The alternative to the above is if Paul has a high degree of faith in the results of the elector magnetic survey, he could potentially try and drill at a 50m spacing to get a measured / indicated resource on the first drilling campaign at Satrokala. This could be risky however.
Having said that, you asked for estimates, and here are mine.
I have added a "Pay for PFS 2" item, given we don't have money, haven't really started the PFS in anger yet, and it seems Paul is intent on drilling Satrokala - but he needs money to do so.
IF the DFS is required, then Paul will need to do another raise which will add additional dilution.
Anyways... I have updated my estimates by adding a "Pay for PFS 2" by raising another $3m @ $0.15c (I will be bitterly disappointed in a raise at this price - even if offered the opportunity to invest)
Here is my estimate based on doing a raise, happy to discuss with anyone willing to share their thoughts, or if you think I have been too generous.
Again, my speculation only.
(20min delay)